Earth Shaking Destinations
April 17, 2017
While noteworthy quakes of late have been rather sparse when we plan our summer vacations there's something else we need to consider in travel planning and it's earthquake readiness when we're away from home. In focusing on foreign travel we may be hitting the shores of paradise in area's to which we may be unfamiliar and it's a good idea to take a leap to the Net and run a search for the Place Name + Earthquakes where we can discover the magnitudes of earthquakes usually experienced and if they occur frequently or rarely.
Though upon arrival at our accommodations, possibly a hotel as an example, when we have completed our sign-in process an absolute must is to ask where the emergency exits are located which are closest to our room and as soon as we off load our luggage, we need to walk there and find out if the exit works and discover if one can go back inside after closing the door.
It's not uncommon in the least for hotels to have several exits, yet not all of them may be unlocked, though if someone can come in from outside once the door is closed it's obvious the safety of their guests and their belongings can be compromised. No doubt with recent travel safety becoming an issue in the news, most focus on matters not related to earthquakes, though the last thing we'd like to discover is finding our vacation destination having an earthquake, possibly experiencing loss of electric power and the exits blocked or locked.
Secondarily, paradise often includes ocean waters and seas and with that we shouldn't forget to look for a possible safe place that would take one away from the shoreline in the event a tsunami were to occur. It's not something we like to think about, though in recalling the 2004 Sumatra M 9.0 earthquake, there were quite a number of foreign travelers on site and most didn't know what a tsunami looked like or appreciate the need to head for higher ground when strong shaking occurs.
Given tomorrow, April 18th is the anniversary of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake we might wonder, can another big quake occur anytime soon? History tells us there have been three extreme quakes of high magnitude 7.8+ about every 300 years, however, there were two that occurred at 99 year intervals, thus as we are now 111 Years since 1906 it is possible to experience a major event, though at present I have no knowledge of anything in particular that leads me to believe it will occur in the here and now.
Earthquakes offer many opportunities for estimating or guessing when the next noteworthy event might occur, however, as scientists remind us, they are often humbled through suggestion it's now, versus later, though I'm very supportive of their dedication to their work and their willingness to attempt a feat that can prove very difficult.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Elevated Quake Risk for California
February 26, 2017
As some may be aware for the past two years I've been working on another aspect of Dr. Lowell Whiteside's far field aftershock theory with my observances of what I term The Triple Ring Effect where three rings appear in the south-eastern Pacific and in researching historical records have taken note which areas along the West Coast of North America may experience earthquakes in the next thirty days.
At present due to the 02/24/17 M 6.9 Ndoi, Fiji quake upon performing my research for prior quakes using a 200 kilometer radius from the epicentral region, historical records reflected California has experienced prior quakes more than once in Northern and Southern California making these conditions suggestive of the possibly we may have an elevated state of risk through 3/24/17 along faults that could be on the verge of moving.
The areas previously affected were Greenville near Lake Almanor, Berkeley, Isla Vista and Borrego Springs which cuts a wide swath from Northern to Southern California though the door is open for other possible locations as well.
In our last exercise with Papua New Guinea's M 7.9 on 1/22/17 historical records suggested quake activity at off shore Port Hardy, Canada and three quakes followed, two at off-shore Port Hardy; an M 4.7 on 2/11 and an M 4.4 on 2/22 while an unexpected felt event took place NW of Pemberton on 2/18 as an M 4.4. However as to Anchor Point, Alaska in the Cook Inlet, the area experienced a spate of small quakes with one event the USGS reported as an M 3.7 and the UV of Alaska at Fairbanks reported as an M 4.0 occurring on 2/19/17.
All in all scientists tell us if an area experienced an earthquake in the past another one will occur in the future and while long term probability studies are important they don't offer short term note of when elevated risk exists. Yet, with such knowledge at the least we may wish to make mental note of such and if necessary confirm we have supplies on hand if need be.
To follow Lowell Whiteside's Daily Summary click this link: http://www.earthquakesummary.info/
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Prophetic Warning From 1983 -The Beginning of a New World
January 30, 2017
In the terms that "Little Things Mean A Lot" nothing could be more clear in 2017 than a message that was written in the movie War Games which premiered in 1983. It was rather a side note and one most may have overlooked. During the progression of the movie, the character David Lightman, the fledgling computer hacker, brought to the kitchen for dinner with his parents opened an envelope and found a professional brochure enclosed. On the inside upper left corner, it said, "Things will never be the same."
In reflecting on the historical use of computers we know 1983 was a time when computers were at the onset of being used in business, most did not have computers at home, though kids that played Atari found they could write programs and develop more games, yet the world of the Internet wasn't a routine household item at the time.
Yet, by 1993, almost everyone had a computer though it failed to interfere with television or routine household activities.
However, a decade later in 2003 the world of the Internet opened broadly, nearly every household had at least one unit and some more and it turned toward less interest in reading and watching television.
By 2013 the true shadow of the computer and it's capabilities to bring us together or drive us apart became apparent in our daily lives as it disrupted family life and became must have tool for communicating with the outside world, aided children with homework, or drove them from it and proved useful for learning about any topic of interest, yet the dark side in use for criminal undertakings took a decided firm hold in theft and matters of perversion, while death by suicide became commonplace due to Internet bullying.
Hark! 2017 has opened the panorama to an extent the developers of the Internet would have never expected through instant messaging on a scale never used before, often bringing messages not properly thought out, the public's reaction to them while the news media to the greatest extent tries to ferret out what the latest message might suggest and attempt to determine who's doing what and where it might lead.
However, as the Institutions of Science and others have been hit with a muzzle to shut up on matters about climate change, they've decided they too shall hit the streets in the Month of March in protest being unwilling to dismiss their long term studies and continue to ascertain the health of our planet and only made possible by networking through the Internet.
And on a personal level from geophysics to we West Coast citizens in time we'll have something new in the zoo that will change our lives as well when we begin to receive earthquake warnings via cell phones and come discover not everyone will receive a full minute of warning time as has been suggested many times over.
All in all, the prophetic warning from 1983 has revealed it's true; "Things will never be the same". Today there is no safe harbor no matter where one lives and the value of a human life has been greatly diminished when faced with statistics versus one individual life taken at a time. Though perhaps key is our ability to attempt to maintain civility amongst chaos and chart a path toward unity and know, this to shall pass.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Italy's Recent Quakes Unprecedented & What's New in The Human Zoo
January 19, 2017
Yesterday Central Italy was struck by a series of earthquakes reported as being unprecedented with several M 5.0 range quakes and a spate of quakes in the M 4.0 range, yet today a local seismologist has gone into further detail to explain which faults are moving within the Apennine Ridge in Central Italy, a location that has been rocked by several strong and deadly earthquakes since 2009 from L'Aquila to the north in Amatrice.
AS IT HAPPENED: Central Italy reels from four strong earthquakes
http://www.thelocal.it/20170118/5-4-magnitude-earthquake-shakes-central-italy
Unfortunately, it lead to an avalanche at a resort which turned deadly with possibly thirty lives lost.
Italy Rigopiano avalanche: Dozens missing under snow and rubble
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38674788
There's no doubt if such a quake series were occurring on America's West Coast nerves would be seriously rattled, however, after reading dozens of narrative felt reports filed on EMSC's web site I was quite surprised to discover the locals were taking it quite well and did not appear to concern themselves with thoughts something larger might be on the eve of arrival which would have been expected in the U.S.
What's New in the Human Zoo
Thankfully science is taking in a wider scope these days which is proving rather interesting and surprising. It seems we humans have something extra that is not in the realm of paranormal in new research which explains that some folks are hearing sounds when they see flashes of light. It may not seem an important finding, though I could imagine if someone went to their general practice doctor and reported such an experience they'd probably be guided to see a specialist for a myriad number of possible maladies.
Listen with your eyes: one in five of us may 'hear' flashes of light
Science Explains with Humor
The Science of Stupid which aired in the U.K. several years ago has made it's way to our American National Geographic Channel. It presents a delightfully humorous look at flawed human behavior in attempting to engage in physical activities which turned less than successful.
So if you're in a mood to have a look at what didn't work and the science behind it, take 30 minutes to tune in and I think you'll find a few good laughs along the way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_of_Stupid
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Sorting it Out - Predictions by New Zealand's Nigel Gray
December 21, 2016
Since November the press has taken an interest in predictions being issued by Nigel Gray, a man who lives in New Zealand, a painter who also forecasts the weather, though until very recently not someone recognized as an earthquake predictor.
As a matter of nothing more than curiosity it seemed it might be interesting to take a look at what's captured the interest of his readers on Facebook in issuance of two earthquake predictions of which one came at a less than fortuitous moment when a local emergency was in progress as many took to two local gas stations in case the prediction he issued might be needed.
At the onset it's clear his terminology in his first prediction in November proved problematic in stating the quake location would occur in the "South Pacific" In attempting to ascertain exactly what areas fall into that designation it's origins go back to the military designation during WWII. Since then, it has been redefined in terms such as Oceania, or, any place South of the Equator and obviously one an average person would not automatically know, though it's apparent by all sources includes New Zealand, though Trip Advisor a travel booking agency seems to have the only current modern day map of the zone.
In reviewing his November 2016 prediction which has been accepted by Gray's Facebook readers as a correct prediction for an M 7.8 earthquake on South Island, New Zealand we are introduced to his designated prediction zone "South Pacific" but not New Zealand specifically.
In suggesting hind sight makes all the difference in the world, in fact, we need to roll the clock back and imagine what the readers received and whether or not they believed they were in a location that would experience a major earthquake which would affect them in particular, be it New Zealand or elsewhere in the South Pacific. Insofar as I can ascertain from reading news articles, no one reported taking direct action via preparedness before the earthquake occurred.
Gray's November 2016 Prediction Was as Follows:
POSTED on FACEBOOK NOV 6, 2016 FOR AN EVENT TO OCCUR ON 11/14/16 +/- a few days on either side in the South Pacific might occur due to the Super Moon.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/man-predicts-new-zealand-earthquake-9256347
An M 7.8 quake arrived on the Eastern Side of South Island at Amberley on 11/13/16 at: -42.725S 173.065E.
There are two schools of thought on whether the prediction was successful; First we must ask, did it fall within the designated zone of the South Pacific? In fact, it did. Secondarily, in weighing usefulness it's more than apparent the folks who lived in Amberley, New Zealand at the time had no idea if it was going to occur where they lived or in a number of places within the South Pacific zone which have earthquakes frequently. However, the use of "+/- a few days" is unacceptable as it's not clearly defined what period that may encompass.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/article.cfm?c_id=16&objectid=11756897
Gray's second prediction for Gisborne, New Zealand
SECOND PREDICTION - December 13th Due to Weather Modification Gisborne, NZ - North Island - East Side -38.662S 178.017
From ANSS Catalog - Quakes Occurring within 200kms - November 2016 & Onward
2016/11/13 15:42:50.00 -37.0908 178.8618 26.05 5.10 Mb 105 1 0.76 us
201611132126 2016/11/22 19:38:17.76 -37.0647 177.0181 202.92 5.10 Mw 82 1 0.91 us 201611222047
2016/11/26 07:21:41.31 -38.8820 177.6208 16.35 5.00 Mw 112 1 0.63 us 201611262011
2016/11/27 00:18:38.12 -37.1256 179.0434 10.00 5.10 Mb 130 1 1.55 us 20161127200
NO EVENTS OF M 5.0 OR GREATER HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 11/27/16
In light of several earthquakes within 200kms during the Month of November one might expect the area was active at the time and perhaps another quake might occur on December 13th, however, activity ceased, though it caused the locals to storm two nearby gas stations to fuel up regardless of the fact he did not specify the potential magnitude of the expected earthquake.
His prediction is included at this news article link and we note the date of the posting is "about two weeks ago"
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11765468
In Other Reading: January 2016
Gray's notes posted on 1/7/16 and written on 1/5/16 regarding weather modification and an M 4.7 earthquake which occurred on 1/5/16 NZ time on the eastern side of North Island at Opitiki at the link below. This offers his viewpoint on weather issues and earthquakes:
In Summary:
Gray has taken the stance through various news articles that since he received so many "Likes" on his Facebook account he's taken a bow as a good earthquake predictor, however, for folks who are familiar with earthquake prediction practices his work fails to meet the mark as the territory in Prediction #1 - "The South Pacific" was to broad to be useful and in Prediction #2 he failed to specify the magnitude of the expected event leaving the New Zealand locals to believe it might possibly be a big event since his prior prediction was met with an M 7.8 outcome.
Success in earthquake prediction in a formal sense is not derived by a few earthquake predictions, nor how many "Likes" one receives on Facebook but by predicting earthquakes in the smallest zone where the earthquake is expected, a magnitude which is stated and sufficient to match the prediction and within the time specified in the predictions.
However, anyone who has been around the Internet and reads predictions by many are more than aware sensational predictions occur routinely and for the masses who know little of the formalities of earthquake prediction and it's purpose, the term "Anything for a Hit" is commonplace, but we might ask, when does the public feel comfort in earthquake prediction?
I've been following reader responses for approximately fifteen years and I discovered they enjoy off the wall predictions, with added value if a government agency is assigned as a culprit in possibly instigating earthquakes with HAARP or CERN most often cited. Though the predictions themselves need to be in a form that the likelihood of such an occurrence affecting them personally is unlikely.
Our American audience became familiar with the broad scope via Jim Berkland's Ring of Fire M 7.0+ Predictions which encompassed 25,000 miles while his friend Jack Coles commonly predicted earthquakes from Alaska to Russia which was a slightly smaller area or, Latin America, another lesser defined area.
For now Nigel Gray is in the spotlight and in time we'll discover if his predictions are more often in the broad scope and if all of the prediction information requirements upon issuance are met and confirm if the outcome meets the prediction(s) on all points: prediction period, location and magnitude.
Thanks for Joining Us,
Petra
The 2,500 Year Southern CA Recurrent Earthquake Risk in the News
November 21, 2016
It''s that time of the year, when we find ourselves besieged with news about scary earthquake scenario's, yet trending now comes an unusual suggestion that the San Andreas Fault in Southern California might take a longer leap than anticipated according to Canadian Seismologist Maiclaire Bolton who works for CoreLogic in Oakland, California.
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/our-company.aspx
CoreLogic's primary interest is in monitoring the Financial Sector and of course that's who takes a big hit when a major earthquake occurs, though what's missing in this trendy matter, at least the free version, is when did the last event occur that sets the clock at recurrent 2,500 year periods?
We've heard a plethora of information about Cascadia, the M 9.0 quake that occurred in Canada in 1700 along with lesser quakes from Canada down to the Mendocino Triple Junction suggesting such events occur about every 350 to 500 years and it does beg one to wonder, will it actually occur in our lifetimes? So what should we take away from a 2,500 year recurrent suggestion?
Frankly, having worked in the Insurance Industry for 30 years I am more than aware that what motivates folks to consider earthquake insurance requires a minimum M 5.0 quake for someone to call and ask what quake insurance costs, but as to real preparation for earthquakes, it requires felt events on a routine basis which leads one to believe something might happen which could affect that person.
The present article from the Wall Street Journal may be read in part at this link and if you care to subscribe you may read the entirety:
Earthquakes: Reckoning with 'The Big One' in California-and it just got bigger
Nonetheless, we must remember above all else in the majority scientists do not predict earthquakes. They may offer an opinion about what they think may occur, but they rarely offer formal earthquake predictions.
So as to who should be concerned about the possibility of the big zipper ripper it's an individual choice, but we do know Southern California residents have been told since 1950 to expect a M 8.0 quake on the lower San Andreas Fault and thus far some 66 years later it has failed to materialize.
I suppose at this juncture with the primary news focus on what may become of our country under the leadership of President Elect Trump, as to worrying about earthquakes, they are not a matter to worry about, but simply prepare for while we live life as it happens.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
President Elect Trump on Climate Science - Who Shall Be on the Chopping Block?
November 18, 2016
In terms of funding science projects, when Federal funding comes into play it can at times change the complexion of who may research and what jobs may be eliminated. We've seen this before when the USGS received less funding which caused many to be laid off while in other cases when a scientist retired, that position might not be filled by a successor.
In one of President Elect Trump's public dialogues some weeks ago, he said he was going to remove Federal funding for any scientific endeavor related to Climate Change. That message is now being weighed heavily in the climate science field and thanks to the Guardian news on-line we're able to read the thoughts of those working in the field and up-and-comers who have geared their education in that direction who have left to wonder, what if?
Scientists Prepare to Fight for Their Funding Under Trump
There should be little question as to whether the world is being affected by climate change, yet some folks believe it's a passing thing and in time nature will change in some way and reverse the process. That seems a little naive these days especially for humans who have already experienced the land they lived on perhaps in the Maldives or southern Bangladesh, as the ground has been inundated by sea water forcing them to relocate.
Yet we might wonder, if any newly seated president might anticipate only a four year term in the White House maybe Climate Change can be set aside while funding goes toward infrastructure in repairing roads, highways and bridges. It's true, the need exists but the loss of four years of data on our changing climate could place us in the position of lacking preparedness in addressing the impact on America's coastal areas.
Though on the human scale, climate science as with any other field of research is a specialized field and if employment is negated some may find they'll need to rethink their careers and if placed on hold for four years, the time and money they spent preparing for a job may go to the grads four years from now, leaving today's up-and-comers on the back burner working in a field that may be anything but what they hoped for and perhaps paying less while feeling the effects of student loans another career may not support.
In the end we know our planet changes all of the time and while seen daily in earthquake listings, most will forget and think what happened today may have no impact on what's going to happen, yet it's not true. An hour or two of fanning though historical records clearly shows that quakes do emerge in patterns and history does repeat itself time and again. Yet without those records we'd have no appreciation of anticipating what the future holds.
And the same can be said of climate science as there are records of what happened before and these tell us of what happened, what's changed the world to make it happen and what consequences lie ahead due to major global changes.
Unfortunately at this time there are no answers for those who work in the climate change field but the losses that may come are more in the realm of We The People vs scientists alone because we are in a partnership to save the planet, not simply providing employment.
There's much to consider.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Major Earthquake Rocks New Zealand - Sets Off Regional Triggering
November 13, 2016
An M 7.8 quake struck the northeastern area of South Island and started an interesting regional triggering series northward striking Kaikuora with an M 6.5 amongst others, then shook up the area further north at Blenheim with the highest magnitude thus far at M 5.7.
Regional triggering is not unknown, though what we are viewing a present is unusual in that we have three specific areas rattling residents. Of reports filed on EMSC those closer to the M 7.8 event felt the quake for up to one minute while those near Blenheim reported shaking lasting five full minutes.This too is not something we report on daily, however, as to what the damages may be, one woman reported as she looked out of her window some 97 kms from the epicenter she saw a church across the street from her residence collapse and when she went outside viewed another building collapsing.
Unfortunately in the realm of news reporting because this occurred on our American Sunday the reports at present are a bit sketchy, however, I would anticipate loss of life is certainly a possibility as well as casualties.
Yet for the curious, I have posted a P-Wave Map to which it's development comes from scientist Dr. Lowell Whiteside and the map was created by geophysicist Roger Hunter.
Areas at current risk focus primarily on Alaska and the State of Washington and in the past on 4/11/65 and M 6.2 quake hit this same area of New Zealand and on 4/29/65 an M 6.7 struck Washington at the Port of Tacoma, so heads up for our American northwestern residents.
We sincerely hope those affected will receive aid and assistance as rapidly as possible.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Research Partner Takes to the Great Highway
November 3, 2016
Seventeen years ago in May of 1998 I had the good fortune of becoming acquainted with Don Eck who volunteered to become my research partner and little did I know that the man I thought early on was rather a country bumpkin kind-of-guy turned out to be so intelligent, a marvel with connecting with other people, an absolute fun guy to spend time with and in time proved to be the true code breaker in geophonic (ear tone) research.
Sadly, he left our world and headed for the Great Highway in the Sky, the place he once loved being very close to as an Air Force pilot due to congestive heart failure on October 13th at age 85.
Overall, there was rarely a time during our seventeen years that more than a day would pass without a phone call between us, so to say his absence has changed my life dramatically would be an understatement, though our years together as co-researchers and best friends were probably the best 17 anyone could have hoped to experience.
These days the general public is not as aware as they might have been sometime ago about what military officers do during the course of their employment and with Don's great love in traveling he virtually traveled the world and at one time fluently spoke seven languages, though in the fullness of time found himself becoming a training officer for the up and comers and spend the majority of his time writing training manuals. As with most in his time he was assigned to combat duty in Vietnam which proved to be very short lived as his flight in a helicopter into the combat zone ended when the copter crashed leaving him with a compressed spinal injury and broken ankle.
He lived and worked in Japan for eight years where he met the love of his life, the secretary to the U.S. Ambassador and upon retirement they returned to Hollister, California where they raised their daughter, "The Termite" who became a dental hygienist and enjoyed over fifty years of marriage.
His most wonderful attribute is that if he was anyone's friend, he was their best friend and as the years progressed it was not unusual for him to receive calls in the middle of the night to take someone to the hospital or attend to anything else that might be needed and I cannot ever express how helpful he was to me on a personal level when I had my two bouts with cancer in 2006.
And thanks to his analytical thinking when we were trying to develop a better understanding of an ear tone I heard two hours before the 2/28/2001 Nisqually, Washington M 6.8 quake it occurred to him we might divide the miles from my location to the epicenter by the seconds I heard and that turned our geophonic program onto the fast track. In time with adjustments made for the length of time it takes a human being to appreciate they are hearing a sound, in 2007 we achieved our grand slam when I predicted a quake in Southern California and hit the exact epicenter. In the realm of earthquake prediction insofar as I'm aware no one else in the world, regardless of methodology has ever been able to do likewise. So to say he was a valuable research partner would be an understatement as he virtually took us from wondering in the desert to implementing a program with substance.
Yet in saving possibly the best for last, being what I term myself as an intuitive person we formed a pact that when he passed on, hopefully, if he came to visit me from the "afterlife" he would tug on my right ear lobe to confirm it was indeed him and our experiment didn't take long to be realized. He passed over during the morning on October 13th and at 2am on October 15th while I was asleep with my head resting on the left side of my pillow, I woke up feeling my right ear lobe being squeezed tightly and instantly I knew it was him and within seconds I heard him say, "I'll never leave you alone." It was a marvelous surprise as I expected it would take much longer and I immediately contacted our research team with the header on my e-mail stating, "Houston - We've Got Contact!"
It's true, life is mysterious and that's what makes exploring aspects of earth sciences a wonderful endeavor because there's always something that needs a focus that hasn't been researched or solved.
Don is the third person in our research team who has passed during our many years together and I miss them all, yet each and everyone who has left us contributed something unique and in time an item that proved highly valuable.
So as we say Farewell Friend to Don, he will always be remembered as a man of substance and value, a devoted husband and father as well as a friend to many.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
On Citizen Science - Filling the Voids
July 17, 2016
On July 3rd The Guardian ran an excellent article about citizens who have undertaken scientific research which revealed the work by some is filling the void where scientists don't have the time, funding, or sometimes, the inclination to pursue.
Citizen science: how the net is changing the role of amateur researchers
As the article mentions, thanks to the Net today it's much easier to research any topic of interest and with nearly open access we have the ability to scan volumes of research articles and ascertain if one's interest has already been explained or perhaps not fully completed and it's fairly obvious there are always voids across the vast spectrum of possible interests such as air quality, clean water, medicine and earthquake prediction, as examples.
In my previous article on the methods of prediction by Jim Berkland, it took about a year to realize the meat of the matter was missing and while the Net in 1999 had significantly less to offer than at present I thought it best to seek our the opinions of scientists who had an interest in earthquake prediction and I'm thankful I began that way. Yet, I was just as interested in why geophysicists believed prediction wasn't possible as those who thought it might be because the negative response required finding answers for the voids that led them to their conclusions.
However, unlike researching one aspect of a medical condition as an example, earthquake prediction is multi-faceted and multi-disciplinary which requires crossing many lines to create a working model on any aspect that works most of the time and it's key to focus on the fact that thus far there is no absolute in the process. Some methods such as using solar flares, distance triggering, ULF/VLF receptors, stain meters, human and animal responses to various phenomenon don't always bring an outcome some might expect, though we're closer today to finding something that works all of the time.
The good news in these times is that government agencies in countries around the world as well as private practice scientists are developing and working on new prediction methods so the fascination and interest hasn't declined, though of those who may wish to engage in researching methods for prediction it's more than apparent the Net has also become a storehouse of false information with early conclusions made by folks who have performed little research and may not possess the skills necessary to assimilate information in the correct order which is causing some Net readers to be mislead about what's of value vs dramatization driven by imagination.
At this point in time, now nearly seventeen years into the process, what I've found that's missing by most researchers and predictors is that "history tells the tale." It's written in data collection and when we ask if similar conditions existed previously, there's a good chance it has and will repeat the process which leads us to ask but one important question, what happened before the lurching quake in that region past or present? The answer is best found in modern times due to global monitoring and human input, thus decades from now we'll be better prepared to offer more accurate predictions than at present.
All in all, we should welcome citizen scientists to engage in research that may lead to a broader scope in understanding any realm of science, yet it's best not to jump to early conclusions and ask for help from scientists as most are more than willing to lend a hand.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
On Prediction Techniques - The Berkland Mystique
July 4th, 2016
Much as been said over the years about and by Jim Berkland and most notable were his discussions on radio shows about various predictions he made, yet the general public has little understanding that the primary goal of earthquake warnings has always been to name a specific place which would experience an earthquake with a small radius, a short time period of no greater than 10 days when the event was expected and a magnitude that's relatively close to the quake expected. The general term for such is known as Site Specific Earthquake Prediction and it's intended to be useful to the extent that those who may lie in harms way are aware there is a greater risk than normal a quake is going to occur in their area.
However, at no time has Jim Berkland ever issued site specific predictions as his method of using the moon and tides had no capability of doing so and thus he accommodated it's short-fall by selecting areas with a large radius with a primary expectation of occurrence within 8 days, though later expanded it in a bulls eye arrangement up to 14 days with a set magnitude range from 3.5 to 5.5. He also included his Ring of Fire Predictions to occur anywhere along the 25,000 mile boundary for M 7.0 or greater events. The linked article below offers a note that he predicted the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake with a magnitude range of 3.5 to 6.0, yet the prediction issued in the San Jose Mercury News prior to was as always; for a quake of M 3.5 to M 5.5 within 100 miles of Concord, CA with no mention of the area of Loma Prieta in the Santa Cruz Mountains, nor San Francisco as stated in the article. Yet, insofar as I'm aware the suggested Mega Quake warning was never posted on Berkland's web site Syzygy and I wasn't aware of it until I saw it among quake related news stories on June 7th.
Scientist warns MEGA EARTHQUAKE threatening millions could hit USA TODAY
EXPRESS PUBLISHED: 09:50, Fri, Apr 22, 2016 | UPDATED: 10:37, Fri, Apr 22, 2016
The Man Behind the Mystery
In life it's true, we never really know anyone, however, it's also true that once we know something about someone that may bother us to some degree we can't erase that from our memories, though time itself often has a way of softening our negative remembrances.
In May of 1998 I joined his Internet forum and knowing absolutely nothing about Berkland or earthquake prediction it appeared to me Berkland was a humanitarian and someone who wanted to forward earthquake prediction in hopes of offering life saving warnings. Within weeks he said he wanted to meet me and take me to lunch, so we set a date and met at Lund's Cafe in Petaluma. We sat in a booth in the front of the restaurant, ordered lunch and he commenced sharing with me quite a few things including a photo of him riding a pony on the ranch where he lived as child, some of his poetry and several of his newsletter's including his latest edition which he chose to read aloud and he was so loud I'm certain none of the lunchtime patrons could have missed a word he uttered and I vividly recall all I wanted to do was to slip under the table.
In time I met him at other venues where I noted he was always friendly, though as to his driving force behind his interest in earthquake prediction I'm not certain I know though I think there's little doubt he's a person who needed attention, an audience and a platform.
By May 1999 I wanted to gain a better understanding about why mainstream scientists were not predicting earthquakes and I let him know I intended to do so and he encouraged my doing so and it didn't take long to realize I had much to learn, but first and foremost it was clear there was no formal branch of any government or institution set up to predict earthquakes and scientific expectations were considerably higher than Berkland's program.
Berkland vs The Government and/or The USGS
As to how or why Berkland developed the opinion the government wasn't in support of his prediction regime I came to know that he worked as a contract employee at the USGS for six months, thus he wasn't part of the rank and file of permanent employees. His colleagues were aware he was issuing predictions though falling short of Site Specific Prediction goals most scientists are well aware of, yet an incident occurred during his tenure which may have been the catalyst to his anti-science storm. It seems on one occasion when he was walking down an interior hallway with a handful of his newsletters he fanned them into the faces of his colleagues and asked if they wanted a copy which didn't go over very well. I can't say I was surprised because it's commonly understood in most business offices employees may be allowed to bring in materials related to outside interests, but they must be placed in common areas such as lunchrooms, but they are not to be handed out to fellow employees or made a matter of discussion during work hours.
Yet furthering the Berkland vs the USGS issue it came by his suggestion that they were changing magnitude determinations to make certain he couldn't achieve credit for some of his predictions, though I learned it's literally impossible not only in the USA but anywhere in the world. Having been to several science offices I came to appreciate the folks who review seismograms from recent earthquakes proof them for accuracy and they are frequently changed for correctness regardless of how large or small each quake may be. And upon leaving the reviewers desks the data goes to agencies other than the USGS for earthquake catalog recording and they're reviewed again and some may be reviewed possibly up to twenty times. Thus in proofing hundreds of daily quake arrivals it's literally impossible for anyone to take the time to surf the Internet and change data to interfere with anyone's prediction programs and especially in formal cataloging which occurs outside of the USGS. Though for his loyal followers his dictates firmly placed thoughts in their minds interference was occurring and fueled the fire of suspicion that still exists this very day.
Usefulness in Prediction vs Anything for a Hit
Unfortunately over the years when Berkland invited his followers to issue predictions he never mentioned the need for predictions to be useful, thus missing the key element of the process and it seemed demonstrating anyone could achieve a "hit" on a given prediction would be proof earthquakes could be predicted thus negating the stance of science that earthquake prediction wasn't possible. Actually, anyone who works in the field of geoscience's knows anyone can predict an earthquake though as to usefulness, in the majority most of the what is seen in public never meets the mark and if anyone might review Berkland's performance over the years they know of his predictions for Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles most of the quakes were of M 3.5 to M 4.5 and only occasionally between M 4.5 to M 5.5. Yet of his M 7.0 or greater magnitude Ring of Fire predictions, common sense makes it clear if the radius of a prediction covers 25,000 miles it's highly unlikely anyone will prepare for an event and of the predictor, it demonstrates lack of skill.
Yet as the meat of the matter it was revealed through statistical review by Roger Hunter, a retired USGS geophysicist, Berkland's performance indicates the sum of all of his predictions were no better than a coin toss making them far below what was reasonably expected from anyone, especially a scientist. And we should appreciate that throughout his forty years of issuing predictions he never improved upon his standard model which is primarily based upon routine quake behavior.
The Charm Factor
Jim Berkland has had a decided charm factor through the years in appealing to the common man in seeming to care about the welfare of humanity and as oft noted in his written address as it's always commenced with, "Hi Folks." It has that earthy appeal and is quite endearing. In fact, he's much like storytellers who captivate audiences in a number of venues, yet the public in general has no knowledge about the details involved in earthquake prediction, so as he's oft recounted his performance when predicting earthquakes such as Loma Prieta, in fact, he didn't predict it or any other quake locations by place names.
The Last Leg of the Berkland Journey
Jim's presently entering his last phase of life and no doubt he will remain unforgettable as well as his cavalcade of personalities that have surrounded him but sadly his legacy will be to have created a public desire to "play the game of earthquake prediction" in guessing where the next dramatic earthquake may occur and maintaining a jaundiced stance about earth scientists which is surely undeserved.
As for my feelings about him, he's decidedly a likeable personality and he may have influenced his audience to prepare for earthquakes, though I would have enjoyed learning more from him about geology, a topic he, a professional geologist rarely ever discussed.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Overdue Earthquakes - Buzz Feed 2015
November 12, 2015
While I haven't physically counted the number of news articles that proclaimed an earthquake somewhere along the American West Coast was overdue, it seems as though it's been spread in the media more often in 2015 than during other years. Though we might contemplate how any earthquake might be considered overdue when scientists continue to tell us they can't predict when they might arrive, thus it leaves we public folks to wonder, what does "overdue" suggest?
In earthquake catalogs which list every earthquake detected in America it's true there are average times in-between earthquakes in some places and the same can be said of information secured through ground trenching which provides an average time in-between occurrences and less reliable is radio-carbon dating as it's inexact data, usually between 40 to 80 year periods.
Yet, most notable in earthquake expectancy is the matter of the lower end of the San Andreas fault to which Southern California residents have been told since around 1950 that an M 8.0 quake might occur and it's more than apparent some folks in the area probably lived to old age and died of natural causes while waiting for the big one that seems to be perpetually overdue.
And in being more finite, the issue of when, not where, proved very puzzling for our scientists in the only sanctioned prediction experiment in the United States undertaken in Parkfield, California commencing in 1972. It was chosen as the perfect location for gaining information about what happens before and during an earthquake because it seemed to experience an earthquake on average every 22 years, yet the shortest period was 11 years and the last earthquake arrived at year 38 in 2004, thus in that sense, expectancy of arrival was in scientific terms of expectancy, considerably overdue.
Puzzling as well is the matter of Earthquake Probability information that's offered to the public that communicates to us when a major earthquake might occur on some major faults in 30-Year terms and the puzzling part is that before those 30-Year terms expire they are rolled over into another 30-Year period, but as to how many 30-Year terms may come and go before something happens may leave the public wondering if they actually need to prepare for that which is illusive.
Nonetheless 2015 was a banner year in regard as to when a Cascadia mega-thrust quake may occur as it might be overdue as well, though given a quake can occur anywhere along the fault-line from Canada to Northern CA ascertaining where the overdue segment might be located makes it far more difficult to suggest when something might occur.
But we might ask, what's fueling the "overdue" earthquake issue in 2015? It's due to the focus on electronic warnings via ShakeAlert thus when we're speaking of many millions in investment to offer seconds of warning time after an earthquake is in progress the focus must be placed on a need for such warnings and the prime areas that would evoke the longest duration earthquakes that cause the most damage would come from the Southern San Andreas fault and the Cascadia subduction zone, but for other major earthquakes that would affect millions such as in the Los Angeles Basin and the San Francisco Bay Area, the period of seconds of warning time will prove less effective as there's little time to move to safety before the shaking starts.
Though looking on the up-side of what the future holds, the good news may be that while some major earthquakes may occur on our West Coast and can be overcome with some level of efficiency, it's possible the Southern San Andreas and the Cascadia mega-quake may never occur in our lifetimes. And it seems apparent despite numerous news articles about earthquake threats we can't imagine, there are no indications thus far of a mass exodus from the West Coast, so it seems the public is not all-in on buying into the worst case scenario just yet.
In closing I'd like to wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
The Broken People ~ Victimizing the Mentally Ill
October 5, 2015
It's more than apparent societally we're missing the mark in our caring for humanity and in particular the mentally ill. It's true something happened and they were born with a special challenge, but given we have a societal aversion to that which doesn't fall into the category of "normal" most avoid these specially handicapped persons and in time society creates conditions which brings out the worst in those most in need.
Thus as we read reports of one school shooting after another, the special people even in death are victimized when all they ever wanted in life was to feel loved. Thus it's not a matter of gun control, but aiding those in need so they won't seek out weapons to announce, "you didn't love me, so I don't love you either." This is an expression of extreme pain, yet there is no band aid placed on a wound one might see, thus it goes unnoticed.
The young man involved in the Oregon shooting is much like Adam Lanza of Newtown; he lived an isolated life with his mother, went shooting with her and unknown to her, his pain grew by the day as he longed to connect, yet every time he went to school his mother removed him and he was left in the darkness of despair.
Yet, the Oregonian young man was like the Santa Barbara shooter, a young man who wanted a relationship with a girlfriend. Though, it's obvious both of them gave off vibes that caused women to avoid them.
Also in finding ties that bind, Adam Lanza's mother said he had Asberger's disease which is not a violent condition and the same was said by the Oregonian young man's mother, but he offered a strong clue to anyone who might have taken note of his sign on name "Lithium_" because it's a medication used for treatment of bi-polar depression and it's a condition of some who can have violent tendencies.
It's true school shooters seek use of a gun for their weapon on choice to end their painful lives, but if there were no guns they would find a way much like the folks involved in the Oklahoma City bombing. Sadly, folks on the Internet can be cruel, mean and extremely aggressive and for those weak in spirit and seeking companionship it offers a medium to connect, also one that can culminate in mental anguish, frustration and anger that's exceptional. And for young men that seek to be "part of" not set "aside from" this medium creates the perfect storm for aggressive mass murder.
It's more than apparent most have an aversion to the mentally ill and it begs one to ask, who is really broken; folks who avert those in need or those in need who ask us to welcome them into our world?
A few years ago I went for a walk and upon entering a shopping center to go the bank I heard a grown man speaking loudly on the sidewalk, down the way. He seem inebriated, but what I heard in his expressions were of a grown man calling out as though a lost child.
I went to the bank and upon exiting I came face to face with him. He was huge, perhaps seven feet tall and I said, "Hello." He told me he lived under the overpass nearby and showed me chemical burns he had on his lower legs inflicted by someone to the folks who lived there and he said he wanted to move on, but he didn't know where to go. I looked at him and I said, "God has a plan for all of us and given you're a large man I think you're where you are now to protect the people around you and when your job is done, God will send you where you need to go."
He leaned forward and wrapped his arms around me and hugged me tightly and said, "You're not only beautiful on the outside, but the inside too." I told him I had to go and as I turned to walk away with tears streaming down my face I felt so fortunate because for but a brief moment in time two strangers offered an expression of caring.
Thus I question, is it so difficult to listen? Can we hear the sound of pain? Can we stop for just a moment and say, Hello? And can we be kind on the Internet? We can or could, but as always someone will say, "It's not my problem, I'm to busy." And I say, the next time you're on the Internet, the virtual world, listen with your heart and know you can change the world, one person at a time, in just one shortconversation.
Remember ~ Love is the bridge. Kindness is the way.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Living in the Shadow of Charles Richter
October 4, 2015
Dr. Richter said, "Only fools, liars and charlatans predict earthquakes."
In these words he tells us he knew not what the future would hold and most appreciably, how the advent of technology could be applied, refined and made into a viable and mostly reliable product. Additionally, he never saw that the history of earthquakes written by the soldiers of science would one day bring great clarity and confirm earthquakes are not always random, but frequently have a routine pattern in some places on earth, though surely not all, but it is from the words of this most revered scientist that held the way of earthquake prediction at a standstill as he silenced the voices of the creative.
This practice is adverse to every product developed in our modern world. Ideas come as though flashes of light, funding is found for development and promoted with such rapidness at present it seems no sooner in thought than the product is available for sale and we recall all to often, "There's an App for that."
And while it's true that technology often produces what might seem miracles in moments, it also has a flip side and today we are being geared up to believe ShakeAlert will in some way save the masses, yet, the education that needs to accompany the process is not in evidence and it appears there are no plans to move beyond; Duck, Cover and Hold.
It's marvelously ineffective at gas stations, stores that house products on high shelving, walkways in shopping malls lined with multitudes of glass windows, but what shall drivers do when distracted by the beeping sound; the one that will alter their attention from the road to the device? In part all of the aforementioned could cause injury and possible death, thus despite good intentions we may have a new tool, but not the means to appreciate it's intended goodness in full measure.
Today we have a prevalent problem; speed. We fail to think, contemplate the whole of a matter and when we think of public safety we need to slow down, appreciate problems probably exist, address them and know, what is offered is for the greater good and not something we may in hindsight regret because death is irreversible and we cannot expect an apology would be good enough.
In life as we move from youthful unguided enthusiasm to adulthood we are all fools; we believe because we want to, we trust when we shouldn't and yes, snake oil is still being sold though marketed on a grand scale by folks on the Internet.
This is what I think Richter had in mind; selling prediction without foundation in research and testing and by folks who love to embellish and titillate by offering dire news a horrible thing is about to happen and doesn't; yet of these suggestions, they are more highly circulated through the Internet than anything of substance and why? Because people love to be entertained. They love to take the information and run with it and hope they're the first to share it and revel in the public's reaction to it.
And I could imagine Richter looking down on us from his new vista and may mutter to himself in disgust and wont to say, "See, I told you so."
Nonetheless, earthquake prediction research and product development will continue even when ShakeAlert is delivered because we can develop a program with much more warning time but it need not be a matter of competition, simply one product that may fill the void where ShakeAlert is not at it's finest.
And in closing, I send this message skyward to Dr. Richter and my companions along the way, "Have faith, this will be accomplished."
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
New - Quake Early Warning System Maps Added
September 5, 2015
As I mentioned in my previous blog I thought it would be interesting to include a visual aid to offer us an eyeball view of what the quake early alarm system might provide for us to clarify how many seconds we may have when the system is activated and especially in light of so many news articles discussing it, though thus far without official maps which may be confusing.
And while it may be up to three years before we go to live warnings it provides time for us to contemplate a new kind of preparedness and that's to prepare for what we may do when the alarm is received by Smart phones. In general we know we need to seek safety, but not knowing where we may be offers a host of opportunities to imagine what we might do if we were at home which is the probably the most straightforward, but as to what we do on the freeways, much depends on where we feel safe and what other drivers may do which could change our strategy, though for parents who may wish to be wherever their children may be it could be difficult to remember to drive at the posted speed limit and not attempt to outrun the seconds of warning time provided.
Yet, key in driving is to remember the greatest number car accidents occur due to distraction, so while we've been told not to use our cell phones when driving, I'm certain the first few times we receive a quake warning while driving it will be distracting and we need to be mindful it may not necessarily be a warning for a major quake. Thus keen listening is important and being very observant of what's going on around us when not at home.
And now it's time for the big reveal, so click on the tab above for the Early Warning System Demo Maps and take the tour.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Lessons Learned from the 2014 Napa Quake - One Year On
August 23, 2015
Tomorrow is the first anniversary of the 2014 Napa (American Canyon) M 6.0 earthquake and the attached story from the Napa Valley Register outlines the financial implications; where funding came from and it's considerably different than prior earthquakes, though what we learn from each earthquake helps ready us for the next event.
Napa Damage Estimates & Financial Contributions
http://napavalleyregister.com/news/local/earthquake-damage-estimates-remain-work-in-progress/article_fbc2a085-7f35-5f54-a725-4ea9dbdfb2c8.html
Noteworthy of this event was in our worst drought in ages 150 water mains ruptured sending water rushing through some streets for up to two weeks. And as usual gas lines ruptured as well causing fires in a mobile home park which totally destroyed six units.
Two Deaths - Avoidable? Possibly.
In the realm of earthquake survival two good lessons came from the Napa quake; the first being reminded much moves about and in that new dangers where we live occur and while one woman went in search of candles because the power was out, she fell on broken glass, broke her hip and died and of the second fatality, a woman was struck by a flying TV, and of these it's a good reminder something similar might happen to us. Though of survivors, one young man had two friends over and they decided to sleep on the floor in the living room and received quite a surprise not only by the arrival of the quake but the fireplace bricks detached from the wall and fell on him, breaking his pelvis and thankfully after much care recovered.
New Science Contributions Earthquake Lights
Thankfully this event gave some locals a brief glimpse of earthquake lights around Santa Rosa and Napa and while not fully embraced by most scientists at the time, historically they had been noted for more than a hundred years and with a better understanding of why they occur this event brought them to science papering making them no longer a mystery and through the process brought a reminder they are not foreign to the Bay Area.
In 1906 they occurred for three nights prior to the quake having been observed in various forms with sightings commencing in the north at Cazadero observed as lightning on the ground, on the east side of Petaluma viewed as a blue luminescence hovering above the ground and in the inner SF Bay and as far south as San Jose seen as though sheets of color much like an odd aurora making this precursory item something to keep in mind before the next big shaker arrives.
Quake Alarm Sampling
While not distributed for public consumption it has been noted the Berkeley Seismo Lab demo of the event reflected the system possibly would have delivered 7 seconds of warning time for an estimated M 5.7 earthquake. However, when I viewed the demonstration on TV it arrived with a beeping sound and a voice-over announcement said an M 5.7 quake was expected and by the time the voice-over was completed 3 seconds remained before the quake struck.
Calistoga Geyser Reacts
Like most larger Bay Area quakes the Old Faithful Geyser at Calistoga changed its eruptive schedule three days prior, though this time the science community took some interest in it though not sufficient to interest our earth scientists to take over the monitoring operation and formal documentation.
Quake Chasers Research
By the ways and means of bio-sensitivity and natural observations, recognizing a Bay Area quake closer to Santa Rosa than Alum Rock brought it's first clue on June 13th when I felt an earthquake that didn't happen. This type of occurrence has happened before and literally mirrors what the quake will feel like before it arrives. It was followed by typical Bay Area precursory ULF activity generating pulsating ear and tooth experiences by our local folks many times over, while the decided fix on it's emergence arrived within the last days which was demonstrated by our local geese when they changed their flight behavior a week before the event, flying away from the Napa area toward Santa Rosa, the opposite of the norm, though being of similar nature to the 1959 Lake Hebgen, Wyoming M 7.5 event. And lastly, two minor quakes occurred in very unusual locations where quakes almost never occur w/n-w of Napa two days prior letting us know the moment of shaking wasn't far off and I estimated the quake would be of M 5.7 or greater. And upon review our data collection revealed this quake was in the making for 71 days, thus it wasn't a spur the moment sudden lurch, but a slowly developing process and the longest precursory period this group has ever observed.
Though if one might ask if it's unnerving to know an earthquake one is going to feel will happen, in fact it is and as quakes of this magnitude are very rare in the North Bay region, however, what set the stage for my discomfort came when I observed the geese flying in the wrong direction. It seemed as though my heart sank to my stomach and I knew the moment was very near.
In hindsight I've found it curious that while I had no decided interest in bird behavior as time passed opportunities to learn kept arriving and when I heard from an astrophysicist about the water fowl leaving the area of Lake Hebgen from a man who had been there and rode through an M 7.5 quake in 1959, I never questioned what I was observing and from thereon out it was like watching a movie and discovering how it ends.
For me, it ended at 3:20am while asleep on my couch when I felt the p-wave arriving and the movement oddly seemed circular and moments later the house began jerking and oddly there were no sounds throughout the house which is something new to me as I've always listened for what I call the household musical quake medley.
In time this quake will be easily forgotten as it occurred in a lesser inhabited area, tucked away in wine country, but for those of interest in research it has provided another leg on the journey toward a better understanding of what happens prior to earthquakes.
Readiness
It's truly rare for most to actually be 100% prepared because our actions in life dictate we can't address everything all of the time, but we should think about securing glassware that causes hazards, remember not to burn candles as a nearby gas leak could cause a fire or an explosion and seriously consider purchasing quake insurance so we won't have to wonder how we will recover, but know our most troubling concern will have already been addressed.
Coming Soon
I'm in the process of preparing maps to offer a demonstration of how much time the quake early warning system will provide using several quake scenarios which I hope will prove helpful in giving us a glimpse much closer to reality than notes in various news articles, and allow us to look in on what the future holds, discover how it applies to us, how to make the best use the warning and revealing risks that will come as a result of it's deliverance.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Happy Birthday to Don - My Partner in Seismoland
August 4, 2015
1998 proved to be a banner year for me in acquiring the best friend of a lifetime and a researcher most would be proud to share time with, marvel at his excellent logic skills, someone with a passion for the learning more about earth sciences and proved to be a great geo-field guy to hang out with and one I discovered had a few hidden talents such as sharing his collection of jokes though the odd songs he loved to sing along the way were carried with a good tune as well.
The photos above were taken east of Sonoma State University in Rohnert Park on Gravity Hill, off the Lichau Road and demonstrates two friends on a casual hunt and find in a place covered with shutter ridges which most think are cow paths on the hills, nearby sag ponds, something often seen along fault lines and in fact sits directly above the Rodgers Creek fault and one that someday may deliver the big M 7.0 punch we've long expected.
One might say I collected Don when we met on the Internet site, Syzygy owned by Geologist Jim Berkland and in 1998. It was housed by a force of positivity not seen on most web forums anymore because it was filled with an air of enthusiasm from folks who really wanted to realize useful prediction warnings and didn't mind getting a little dirty mucking about, be it in oil seeps or yucky earth to acquire something useful to bring to the forum for discussion.
Over the years while Don and I traveled mostly in California, from time to time we ventured into Nevada and Oregon finding enrichment in field studies, yet furthering "the cause" came from contact scientists we met, be it at their offices, science meetings, field trips or via the Internet.
Since meeting him in person in the spring of 1999 in Parkfield on a tour arranged for our Internet group from Syzygy where we literally walked the San Andreas fault it's with great rarity we haven't spoken on the phone every night unless seen in person and through times of sickness and health we've been there for each other mostly discussing earthquake behavior and thankfully in playing off of each others ideas we've run some ideas up the flagpole quite a few times including asking if commuter traffic instigates earthquakes, what the force is behind a phenomenon we discovered related to quakes off shore of California which we coined The Coastal Shove, yet the man who rarely hears sounds before earthquakes played a key role in aiding we who hear them routinely as it was he alone who gave us the key to the kingdom in 2001 in defining the distance factor we use in determining where future earthquakes will occur.
So as my best friend and co-research turns to Year 81 of his life, thankfully with a mind that is as sharp today as ever, let me say Thanks Friend for sharing so many wonderful moments, being a firm rudder in a stormy sea when needed, laughter that lightened my days and yet there are but few words to cover how fortunate I feel to be blessed with the best thing that ever happened in this woman's life, a friend who is always himself, honest as the day is long and a guiding force imbued with kindness.
And I hope you as well will join me in wishing Don a Happy Birthday and continued enthusiasm in the thrill of the hunt for what may shaking next in Seismoland through Year 81 and beyond.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
Cascadia Megathrust - The Monster Under the Mattress
July 15, 2015
In America's West when folks become nervous about earthquakes, it's much like the earthquake boogeyman emerges from under the mattress which brings a heightened state of alert and for some alarm and while recent news articles about the potential for an M 9.0 quake along the Cascadia fault-line may be one that ranks high in gaining research dollars for scientists, employment for many engineers and concern amongst governmental bodies, we should be careful about suggestions as to when it may occur and our expectations of how our citizenry understands exactly how devastating such an event may be.
When preparedness is addressed to everyday people about something unknown by experience, key is understanding our imagination is limited by direct experience and can be appreciated to a limited degree by viewing similar types of events at a distance, but perhaps only those who are very familiar with disasters can visualize the possible full extent of such matters. In recent times while western America has been experiencing extreme drought it's turned otherwise is other parts of the U.S. by excessive snowfall in Boston to which it was noted in the news yesterday a mountain of snow collected and stored from street collection finally melted. Yet, flooding has proven devastating for the past few years in Colorado and in 1921 in Coupland, Texas near San Antonio 38 inches of rain fell in but one day which washed away most of the town and killed over 100 persons. These lie outside of imagination not only to locals but persons at a distance and if they had been told ahead of time, one day this or that may occur they couldn't appreciate the extent of the event in advance.
However, it seems of late through press offerings that Cascadia may upend at any time and folks who may lie in harms way should prepare for something highly unfamiliar, but when suggested it could occur at any time or may be overdue, it's obvious if most scientists tell us they cannot predict earthquakes then here and now suggestions are not true making this very similar to warnings of an M 8.0 quake on the Southern San Andreas fault in 1950.
Oregon ‘will be toast’ when next big earthquake hits Northwest region is 72 years overdue for next big earthquake, experts say
http://koin.com/2015/07/13/oregon-will-be-toast-when-big-earthquake-hits/
Adding to the confusion is not exactly knowing where some part of the fault may take the lurch and it to is not known either making it clear the basic requirements of any prediction that suggests knowing where and when are missing key ingredients that would encourage citizenry in the area to prepare for something they can't imagine. Drawing from history is one's best hope in looking toward the future, thus the 1969 M 9.2 Great Alaskan earthquake offers some quality clues in appreciating ground subsidence and landslide danger along with how a West Coast tsunami affects coastal areas.
The Pacific Northwest has offered two non-quake related landslide demonstrations in recent times on Whidbey Island and in Oso which turned deadly, thus we know when Cascadia shakes they along with many others will experience landslides and for all along the West Coast they are not familiar with long duration earthquakes such as the nine minutes experienced by some in Alaska in 1969 which led them to believe the world was coming to an end.
To Much May Equal To Little
Sometimes when faced with to much information with obvious key ingredients missing it may well be beyond the limit for persons to know exactly what they should plan doing until the quake actually occurs which may in fact equal to little being done in advance due to excessive unknowns.
And nothing made that more clear than in regard to post quake issues that occurred in Napa, California on 8/24/14 when following their M 6.1 quake hundreds were told to leave their homes though they showed no damage whatsoever while the urgent responders wanted to inspect them before allowing the residents to remain. Thus for folks who had emergency preparedness kits and were in good condition to remain at home were forced out of their homes for days and off to hotels, family or friends homes and highly inconvenienced.
All in all, life presents risks, some are closer and more relevant than a suggested megathrust quake and touch the lives of those near and dear by car accidents, cancer and other health issues and crime surely has a large role in the lives of many; but the ultimate decision one might conclude is if one believes Cascadia is to great a risk to endure then an exodus out of the area to another might be considered, though weighed against risk that will surely lie at one's hopefully less risky safe haven.
Thanks for joining us,
Petra
USGS - 1964 Alaskan Earthquake
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1964_03_28.php
